#  Spring 2021 Seminar event 

 



####  calendar\_today Date and Time 

 **April 16, 2021** 

 10:00AM - 11:30AM EDT 

####  pin\_drop Location 

 **Zoom conference**  



 

 



 

 **Presenter**: Eric Neyman   
**Topic**: From Proper Scoring Rules to Max-Min Optimal Forecast Aggregation

##  Spring 2021 Seminar

 The EconCS Group holds an Economics and Computer Science research seminar each semester.

 Spring 2021 meetings are held at 10-11:30am on Fridays. Seminar Coordinators for Spring '21 are Mark York, <markyork@g.harvard.edu> and Anson Kang, <ansonkahng@college.harvard.edu>

 **Abstract**: This paper forges a strong connection between two seemingly unrelated forecasting problems: incentive-compatible forecast elicitation and forecast aggregation. Proper scoring rules are the well-known solution to the former problem. To each such rule s we associate a corresponding method of aggregation, mapping expert forecasts and expert weights to a "consensus forecast," which we call \*quasi-arithmetic (QA) pooling\* with respect to s. We justify this correspondence in several ways:

\- QA pooling with respect to the two most well-studied scoring rules (quadratic and logarithmic) corresponds to the two most well-studied forecast aggregation methods (linear and logarithmic).  
\- Given a scoring rule s used for payment, a forecaster agent who sub-contracts several experts, paying them in proportion to their weights, is best off aggregating the experts' reports using QA pooling with respect to s, meaning this strategy maximizes its worst-case profit (over the possible outcomes).  
\- The score of an aggregator who uses QA pooling is concave in the experts' weights. As a consequence, online gradient descent can be used to learn appropriate expert weights from repeated experiments with low regret.  
\- The class of all QA pooling methods is characterized by a natural set of axioms (generalizing classical work by Kolmogorov on quasi-arithmetic means).



 

 



 

 See also:- [ Spring 2021 EconCS Seminars ](/taxonomycalendarseminar/seminars-2021-spring)
 
 

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